Най-високо ниво на паунда от август насам с надежди за забавяне на повишаването на лихвите в САЩ | Бизнес

Въведение: Паундът се покачва с надеждата, че Фед ще бъде по-склонен

Добро утро и добре дошли в нашето обновено отразяване на бизнеса, финансовите пазари и глобалната икономика.

След тежка година спрямо щатския долар, лирата стерлинги завършва 2022 г. със закъснял бум.

Британският паунд достигна 1,21 долара тази сутрин, за първи път от средата на август, подкрепен от надеждите, че централната банка на САЩ може скоро да забави темпото на повишаване на лихвените проценти.

Паундът вече си възвърна близо 20 цента, откакто достигна рекордно ниско ниво през септември след хаоса, причинен от вече изоставения мини-бюджет.

Днес новината, че “голямото мнозинство” от Федерален резерв Длъжностните лица искат скоро да забавят повишаването на лихвите.

Силният паунд може да помогне за успокояване на инфлационната криза в Обединеното кралство, тъй като ще направи вносните стоки като гориво и енергия по-евтини – въпреки че паундът все още е надолу с 10% спрямо долара тази година.

лири спрямо щатския долар през изминалата година Снимка: Refinitiv

Протоколът от срещата на Фед през ноември, където той повиши референтния лихвен процент със 75 базисни пункта за четвърти пореден път, предполага, че много служители може да настояват за по-малко увеличение от 0,5 процентни пункта през декември.

Фед вече повиши целевата си лихва до 3,75%-4%, спрямо 0%-0,25% в началото на годината, докато се опитва да овладее растящата инфлация. Инфлацията на потребителските цени се забави и се очаква да продължи да намалява.

Така че с отслабването на световната икономика служителите се чудят дали могат да бъдат по-малко агресивни сега.

Както се казва в протокола:

По-бавното темпо при тези обстоятелства би трябвало по-добре да позволи на Комитета да оцени напредъка към целите си за максимална заетост и ценова стабилност.

Държавните облигации също се засилиха през последните седмици, тъй като агресивните съкращения на разходите и увеличенията на данъците, очертани от канцлера Джеръми Хънт, успокоиха пазарите.

Sterling and gilts build head of steam – pound hits highest since August vs $ and 3-week high vs euro; 10 and 30-year gilt yields slide to lowest since early Sept pic.twitter.com/1WLXbx1WiB

— Mike Dolan (@reutersMikeD) November 23, 2022

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Стерлингът и златото се повишават до най-високите си нива от август спрямо долара и триседмичен връх спрямо еврото; Доходността на златните облигации за 10 и 30 години спада до най-ниските си нива от началото на септември pic.twitter.com/1WLXbx1WiB

– Майк Долан (@reutersMikeD) 23 ноември 2022 г

The Банка на Англия Очаква се да повиши лихвите си с още 50 базисни пункта и през декември, от 3% на 3,5%.

И бум на хора напускане на британската работна сила Лошото здраве или ранното пенсиониране може да принуди Bank of England да повиши лихвените проценти.

Главният икономист Хю Бел Той предупреди снощи, че напускането на повече от половин милион работници от пазара на труда след пандемията на Covid заплашва да засили инфлационния натиск, дълго след като шокът от покачващите се цени на енергията вероятно ще отмине.

Но с навлизането на Обединеното кралство в рецесия може да е трудно за паунда да се повиши много повече.

Мариус Хаджикириакос, Старши инвестиционен анализатор XMказва:

Последните бизнес проучвания сочат, че икономиката на Обединеното кралство вече е в рецесия и е на път да се свие с 0,4% през това тримесечие, което вероятно ще се задълбочи още повече, като се има предвид резкият спад на прогнозните индикатори като нови поръчки.

Тъй като икономиката е в сътресения, докато правителството затяга колана си, е трудно да бъдем оптимисти за паунда, особено като се има предвид тясната му връзка с глобалните рискови настроения.

Британската централна банка може да промени паунда по-късно, тъй като се провежда конференцията на наблюдателите на Bank of England. Заместник областен управител Дейв Рамсдънглавен икономист ура зърно и външен MPC maker Катрин човек Всичко е говорене.

Също така получаваме най-новите проверки на здравето на фабриките в Обединеното кралство, бизнес климата в Германия, както и резултати от нашите серии „Направи си сам“ Kingfisher.

Resilient sales trends continue at Kingfisher with total sales +1.7% in constant currency and LFL +0.2% https://t.co/RMnLkdgxHB #homeimprovement #homeandgarden #diy #trade #retail #retailnews #q3results #Kingfisher pic.twitter.com/kncfhtc3eJ

— Insight DIY (@InsightDIY) November 24, 2022

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график на работа

  • 9 сутринта GMT: Германският индекс на Ifo за бизнес климата за ноември

  • 9.30 ч. GMT: Последни седмични данни за икономическата активност и социалните промени в Обединеното кралство

  • 9.45 ч. GMT: Заместник-управителят на BoE Дейв Рамсдън говори на конференцията на наблюдателите на BoE

  • 11:00 GMT: Индустриални тенденции на CBI за ноември

  • 12.30 ч. GMT: Сметки от заседанията на ЕЦБ за паричната политика

Model railway maker Hornby has reported that shipping costs have dropped – a sign that supply chain tensions are easing as the economy slows.

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Last year, Hornby had a bleak Christmas – supply chain problems meant that products only arrived after the Christmas trading period.

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Lyndon Davies, Hornby executive chairman, says the company is in a stronger position this year.

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The situation has now greatly eased and shipments from our factories are 40% ahead of last year.

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We are still suffering with late departure dates, however, as the shipping industry trims capacity by cancelling sailings. Despite this, although costs are not back to pre-Covid levels, container rates continue to fall.

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We have also mitigated potential supply disruptions this Christmas by bringing forward the shipping dates on key product lines, which are already available in our warehouse.

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Hornby could use a good Christmas. It made a pre-tax loss of £2.9m in the six months to 30 Setpember, compared with a £700,000 loss a year earlier, leaving it with net debt of almost £5m.

“,”elementId”:”469e5fe1-52e8-45d4-a569-0e8edc2349bc”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1669277588000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”08.13 GMT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1669278237000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”08.23 GMT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1669278237000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”08.23 GMT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”08.23″,”title”:”Hornby hopes for better Christmas”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Thu 24 Nov 2022 08.34 GMT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Thu 24 Nov 2022 07.39 GMT”},{“id”:”637f20818f08a40520c805a8″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The price that the UK government will have to pay to support households with their energy bills is set to increase from January.

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Regulator Ofgem has lifted its energy price cap, which would have meant households faced average bills of £4,279 from the start of 2023, up from £3,549.

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However, the government’s support package means average bills will be £2,500 from last month, and rise to £3,000 from April (although there is no cap on the actual bill you could pay).

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That means winter energy bills support will cost taxpayers around £1,800 per household.

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Here’s the full story:

“,”elementId”:”be34af08-08a5-42a1-b741-778a91edfd0b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/nov/24/annual-uk-energy-bills-would-have-hit-4279-without-emergency-support-ofgem-says”,”text”:”Annual UK energy bills would have hit £4,279 without emergency support, Ofgem says”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”192847c9-8463-4a1b-aa43-bea4ebbe2296″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1669275777000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”07.42 GMT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1669278849000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”08.34 GMT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1669276279000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.51 GMT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.51″,”title”:”Cost of supporting households with energy bills to jump”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Thu 24 Nov 2022 08.34 GMT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Thu 24 Nov 2022 07.39 GMT”},{“id”:”637f214d8f084a383e122f22″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Markets rallied over the last 24 hours, due to weak economic data and the latest Federal Reserve minutes.

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Investors are dialling back the amount of rate hikes they’re expecting from the Fed over the months ahead, which is good for risk assets – and lifting the pound.

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As Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank explains, bad news is good news (even if that bad news includes a likely recession).

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It may seem paradoxical that weak data is being treated as good news by markets, but in large part it’s because the focus is now so heavily on above-target inflation, which has prompted the most aggressive cycle of rate hikes in decades. So signs of slower growth are seen as bringing fewer inflation pressures and hence fewer rate hikes.

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On top of that, since a US and Eurozone recession is now the consensus expectation among economists (and leading indicators are increasingly pointing that way too), contractionary data isn’t as likely to be as surprising to markets as it normally is.

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Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

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After a rough year against the US dollar, the pound is ending 2022 with a late spurt.

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Sterling has hit $1.21 this morning, for the first time since mid-August, lifted by hopes that America’s central bank might slow the pace of its interest rate rises soon.

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The pound has now clawed back almost 20 cents since hitting its record low in September after the mayhem caused by the now-ditched mini-budget.

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It has strengthened today, on the news that a “substantial majority” of Federal Reserve officials want to slow the pace of interest rate rises soon.

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A stronger pound could help cool the UK’s inflation crisis, as it’ll make imported goods like fuel and energy less expensive – although sterling is still down 10% against the dollar this year.

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pound vs the US dollar over the last year”,”caption”:”The pound vs the US dollar over the last year”,”credit”:”Photograph: 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Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting, where it hiked its benchmark rate by 75-basis points for the fourth time in a row, suggest that many officials could push for a smaller rise of 0.5 percentage points in December.

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The Fed has already raised their target rate to to 3.75%-4%, up from 0%-0.25% at he start of the year, as it tried to stamp out elevated inflation. Consumer price inflation has now slowed, and is expected to keep dropping.

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So with the global economy weakening, officials are wondering whether they can be less aggressive now.

“,”elementId”:”a8c1806c-e3dc-45b8-8375-80f691b52b67″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

As the minutes put it:

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n

“A slower pace in these circumstances would better allow the committee to assess progress toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability.

n

“,”elementId”:”4d28d6d5-5f78-42ac-854e-45faccb96aa2″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Government bonds have also strengthened in recent weeks, as the tough spending cuts and tax rises outlined by chancellor Jeremy Hunt reassured the markets.

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/reutersMikeD/status/1595448468772098048″,”id”:”1595448468772098048″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”fd36092a-001a-4ca7-8822-766d629ac5ac”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The Bank of England is expected to raise its own interest rates by another 50 basis points in December too, from 3% to 3.5%.

“,”elementId”:”a8fa1f89-0cba-48fc-a684-1ff47a4e147e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

And a surge in people quitting the British workforce because of ill health or early retirement could force the BoE to further increase interest rates.

“,”elementId”:”37ec8003-93e3-4876-bccc-5c7500068c33″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Chief economist Huw Pill warned last night that the departure of more than half a million workers from the jobs market since the Covid pandemic risked stoking inflationary pressures, long after the shock from sky-high energy prices is likely to fade.

“,”elementId”:”bad93eb5-a582-4b72-900e-1f99c9b6367f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/23/uk-workforce-exodus-bank-of-england-interest-rates-huw-pill”,”text”:”UK workforce exodus could force BoE to raise interest rates, says chief economist”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”ec31835b-cbc3-430d-b78f-2a47364b42b7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

But with the UK falling into recession, it may be hard for the pound to climb much higher.

“,”elementId”:”9bc90cf4-32e4-459c-b34c-d3c74cb1643c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Marios Hadjikyriacos, senior investment analyst at XM, says:

“,”elementId”:”d4c8b3de-6d6a-465f-930b-09d3db3add8c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

The latest business surveys suggest the UK economy is already in recession, on pace to contract 0.4% this quarter, which will likely deepen further considering the sharp drop in forward-looking indicators such as new orders.

n

With the economy rolling over just as the government tightens its belt, it’s difficult to be optimistic on the pound, especially considering its close links to global risk sentiment.

n

“,”elementId”:”17765d61-8c99-4b51-977d-5e99b9e413ae”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The UK central bank may move the pound later, as it holds its Bank of England Watchers’ Conference. Deputy governor Dave Ramsden, chief economist Huw Pill and external MPC maker Catherine Mann are all due to speak.

“,”elementId”:”a7b3b59d-33f5-434d-a365-478dad79787c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

We also get the latest healthcheck on UK factories, and Germany’s business climate, plus results from DIY chain Kingfisher.

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/InsightDIY/status/1595679336505425920″,”id”:”1595679336505425920″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”b9a8071e-dd8d-461d-9a7c-766dfe8f1797″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

The agenda

“,”elementId”:”9fc5bff9-e5df-4a06-b401-f2278d14db53″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

    n

  • 9am GMT: German IFO business climate index for November

  • n

  • 9.30am GMT: Latest weekly UK economic activity and social change data

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  • 9.45am GMT: BoE deputy governor Dave Ramsden speaks at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference

  • n

  • 11am GMT: CBI industrial trends for November

  • n

  • 12.30pm GMT: ECB monetary policy meeting accounts

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основни събития

Model railway maker Hornby has reported that shipping costs have dropped – a sign that supply chain tensions are easing as the economy slows.

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Last year, Hornby had a bleak Christmas – supply chain problems meant that products only arrived after the Christmas trading period.

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Lyndon Davies, Hornby executive chairman, says the company is in a stronger position this year.

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The situation has now greatly eased and shipments from our factories are 40% ahead of last year.

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We are still suffering with late departure dates, however, as the shipping industry trims capacity by cancelling sailings. Despite this, although costs are not back to pre-Covid levels, container rates continue to fall.

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We have also mitigated potential supply disruptions this Christmas by bringing forward the shipping dates on key product lines, which are already available in our warehouse.

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Hornby could use a good Christmas. It made a pre-tax loss of £2.9m in the six months to 30 Setpember, compared with a £700,000 loss a year earlier, leaving it with net debt of almost £5m.

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The price that the UK government will have to pay to support households with their energy bills is set to increase from January.

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Regulator Ofgem has lifted its energy price cap, which would have meant households faced average bills of £4,279 from the start of 2023, up from £3,549.

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However, the government’s support package means average bills will be £2,500 from last month, and rise to £3,000 from April (although there is no cap on the actual bill you could pay).

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That means winter energy bills support will cost taxpayers around £1,800 per household.

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Here’s the full story:

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Markets rallied over the last 24 hours, due to weak economic data and the latest Federal Reserve minutes.

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Investors are dialling back the amount of rate hikes they’re expecting from the Fed over the months ahead, which is good for risk assets – and lifting the pound.

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As Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank explains, bad news is good news (even if that bad news includes a likely recession).

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It may seem paradoxical that weak data is being treated as good news by markets, but in large part it’s because the focus is now so heavily on above-target inflation, which has prompted the most aggressive cycle of rate hikes in decades. So signs of slower growth are seen as bringing fewer inflation pressures and hence fewer rate hikes.

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On top of that, since a US and Eurozone recession is now the consensus expectation among economists (and leading indicators are increasingly pointing that way too), contractionary data isn’t as likely to be as surprising to markets as it normally is.

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Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

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After a rough year against the US dollar, the pound is ending 2022 with a late spurt.

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Sterling has hit $1.21 this morning, for the first time since mid-August, lifted by hopes that America’s central bank might slow the pace of its interest rate rises soon.

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The pound has now clawed back almost 20 cents since hitting its record low in September after the mayhem caused by the now-ditched mini-budget.

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It has strengthened today, on the news that a “substantial majority” of Federal Reserve officials want to slow the pace of interest rate rises soon.

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A stronger pound could help cool the UK’s inflation crisis, as it’ll make imported goods like fuel and energy less expensive – although sterling is still down 10% against the dollar this year.

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Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting, where it hiked its benchmark rate by 75-basis points for the fourth time in a row, suggest that many officials could push for a smaller rise of 0.5 percentage points in December.

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The Fed has already raised their target rate to to 3.75%-4%, up from 0%-0.25% at he start of the year, as it tried to stamp out elevated inflation. Consumer price inflation has now slowed, and is expected to keep dropping.

“,”elementId”:”369f4c49-593c-4ee7-9e7f-e4686593c43f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

So with the global economy weakening, officials are wondering whether they can be less aggressive now.

“,”elementId”:”a8c1806c-e3dc-45b8-8375-80f691b52b67″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

As the minutes put it:

“,”elementId”:”dceab628-e104-40a9-9747-9eb10144630a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“A slower pace in these circumstances would better allow the committee to assess progress toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability.

n

“,”elementId”:”4d28d6d5-5f78-42ac-854e-45faccb96aa2″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Government bonds have also strengthened in recent weeks, as the tough spending cuts and tax rises outlined by chancellor Jeremy Hunt reassured the markets.

“,”elementId”:”25baa6d0-07a5-4e58-8f19-cd6f9454147f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/reutersMikeD/status/1595448468772098048″,”id”:”1595448468772098048″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”fd36092a-001a-4ca7-8822-766d629ac5ac”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The Bank of England is expected to raise its own interest rates by another 50 basis points in December too, from 3% to 3.5%.

“,”elementId”:”a8fa1f89-0cba-48fc-a684-1ff47a4e147e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

And a surge in people quitting the British workforce because of ill health or early retirement could force the BoE to further increase interest rates.

“,”elementId”:”37ec8003-93e3-4876-bccc-5c7500068c33″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Chief economist Huw Pill warned last night that the departure of more than half a million workers from the jobs market since the Covid pandemic risked stoking inflationary pressures, long after the shock from sky-high energy prices is likely to fade.

“,”elementId”:”bad93eb5-a582-4b72-900e-1f99c9b6367f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/23/uk-workforce-exodus-bank-of-england-interest-rates-huw-pill”,”text”:”UK workforce exodus could force BoE to raise interest rates, says chief economist”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”ec31835b-cbc3-430d-b78f-2a47364b42b7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

But with the UK falling into recession, it may be hard for the pound to climb much higher.

“,”elementId”:”9bc90cf4-32e4-459c-b34c-d3c74cb1643c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Marios Hadjikyriacos, senior investment analyst at XM, says:

“,”elementId”:”d4c8b3de-6d6a-465f-930b-09d3db3add8c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

The latest business surveys suggest the UK economy is already in recession, on pace to contract 0.4% this quarter, which will likely deepen further considering the sharp drop in forward-looking indicators such as new orders.

n

With the economy rolling over just as the government tightens its belt, it’s difficult to be optimistic on the pound, especially considering its close links to global risk sentiment.

n

“,”elementId”:”17765d61-8c99-4b51-977d-5e99b9e413ae”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The UK central bank may move the pound later, as it holds its Bank of England Watchers’ Conference. Deputy governor Dave Ramsden, chief economist Huw Pill and external MPC maker Catherine Mann are all due to speak.

“,”elementId”:”a7b3b59d-33f5-434d-a365-478dad79787c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

We also get the latest healthcheck on UK factories, and Germany’s business climate, plus results from DIY chain Kingfisher.

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/InsightDIY/status/1595679336505425920″,”id”:”1595679336505425920″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”b9a8071e-dd8d-461d-9a7c-766dfe8f1797″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

The agenda

“,”elementId”:”9fc5bff9-e5df-4a06-b401-f2278d14db53″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

    n

  • 9am GMT: German IFO business climate index for November

  • n

  • 9.30am GMT: Latest weekly UK economic activity and social change data

  • n

  • 9.45am GMT: BoE deputy governor Dave Ramsden speaks at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference

  • n

  • 11am GMT: CBI industrial trends for November

  • n

  • 12.30pm GMT: ECB monetary policy meeting accounts

  • n

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филтри бета

Хорнби се надява на по-добра Коледа

Снежна сцена Hornby модел железопътен влак
Снимка: Stuart Hall/Alami

Производителят на железопътни модели Hornby съобщи, че разходите за доставка са намалели – знак, че напрежението във веригата за доставки намалява със забавянето на икономиката.

Миналата година Hornby имаше мрачен празничен сезон – проблемите с веригата за доставки означаваха, че продуктите пристигат едва след коледния период на търговия.

Линдън ДейвисИ на Хорнби Изпълнителен директор, казва, че компанията е в по-силна позиция тази година.

Сега ситуацията се облекчи значително и доставките от нашите фабрики са с 40% по-високи от миналата година.

Въпреки това продължаваме да страдаме от забавени дати на заминаване, тъй като корабната индустрия намалява капацитета с анулирани плавания. Въпреки това, въпреки че разходите не са се върнали на нивата преди Covid, цените на контейнерите продължават да падат.

Ние също смекчихме потенциалните прекъсвания на доставките тази Коледа, като преместихме датите за доставка на нашите основни продуктови линии, които вече са налични в нашия склад.

На Хорнби му трябва честит рожден ден. Той направи загуба преди данъци от £2,9 милиона през шестте месеца до 30 септември, в сравнение със загуба от £700 000 през предходната година, оставяйки го с нетен дълг от около £5 милиона.

Човек регулира вентила на термостата на охлаждащата течност.
Снимка: fotorauschen/Alamy

Търговец на дребно за подобрения в дома Kingfisher Отчита се увеличение на търсенето на енергийно ефективни продукти, тъй като домакинствата се опитват да намалят потреблението на газ и електричество.

Изпълнителен директор Тиери Гарние Той каза на града:

Въпреки че пазарната среда остава предизвикателна, продажбите на „Направи си сам“ продължават да подкрепят новите индустриални тенденции като повече работа от вкъщи и ясно увеличение на инвестициите на клиентите в енергийни спестявания и ефективност. DFM и търговската дейност продължават да бъдат добре поддържани от силни тръбопроводи за подобряване на дома.

Kingfisherкоято притежава веригите B&Q, Screwfix, TradePoint и Castorama Poland, по подобен начин увеличи продажбите си с 0,2% през последното тримесечие, което ги поставя с 15% по-високи, отколкото преди пандемията.

Разходите за подпомагане на домакинствата със скачащи сметки за енергия

Цената, която правителството на Обединеното кралство трябва да плати, за да подкрепи домакинствата със сметките си за енергия, се очаква да се повиши от януари.

Регулаторният орган Ofgem повиши тавана на цените на енергията, което означава, че домакинствата са изправени пред средни сметки £4,279 От началото на 2023 г. нагоре от £3,549.

Пакетът за държавна подкрепа обаче означава средно таксуване Това ще бъде 2500 британски лири от миналия месец, нараствайки до 3000 британски лири от април (въпреки че няма ограничение за действителната сметка, която можете да платите).

Това означава, че субсидирането на сметки за енергия през зимата ще струва на данъкоплатците около £1800 на домакинство.

Ето и цялата история:

Слаби данни = добра новина за пазарите.

Мартkets се повиши през последните 24 часа поради слаби икономически данни и най-скоро Федерален резерв Минути.

Инвеститорите се въздържат от това колко повишения на лихвените проценти могат да очакват от Фед през следващите месеци, което е добре за рисковите активи – И вдигнете паунда.

като такъв Джим Рийд от Дойче банк Тя обяснява, че лошите новини са добри новини (дори ако тези лоши новини включват потенциална рецесия).

Може да изглежда противоречиво, че слабите данни трябва да се третират като добра новина от пазарите, но до голяма степен това е така, защото Фокусът сега е много върху инфлацията над целевата стойност, която предизвика най-стръмните повишения на лихвените проценти от десетилетия. Така че признаците за забавяне на растежа се разглеждат като намаляване на инфлационния натиск и по този начин намаляване на скоковете на лихвените проценти.

Освен това, тъй като рецесията в САЩ и еврозоната вече е консенсусно очакване сред икономистите (и водещите индикатори все повече сочат в тази посока), дефлационните данни е по-малко вероятно да изненадат пазарите, както обикновено.

Слабостта на долара също повиши цените на суровините, включително златото.

Цената на златото се покачи до 1755 долара за унция, към тримесечните върхове, поставени по-рано този месец.

Тае Уунг голям дилър в Благородни метали Heraeus iN ny, казва снощните минути от Федерален резерв Пазарите възкликнаха:

Златото се търгуваше по-високо при комфортно възстановяване, след като протоколите от Фед не съдържаха ястребови изненади и потвърдиха, че темпът на печалби ще се понижи до 50 базисни пункта през декември.

„Финансовите пазари са убедени, че Федералният резерв е прекалено развълнуван, така че предпазливо тълкува протоколите, които не съдържат истински изненади предвид коментарите на Фед през последните две седмици.“

#Gold rises past $1,750 as Fed members tout slower rate hikes – https://t.co/mnzqkDgC9i

— Investing.com News (@newsinvesting) November 24, 2022

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Въведение: Паундът се покачва с надеждата, че Фед ще бъде по-склонен

Добро утро и добре дошли в нашето обновено отразяване на бизнеса, финансовите пазари и глобалната икономика.

След тежка година спрямо щатския долар, лирата стерлинги завършва 2022 г. със закъснял бум.

Британският паунд достигна 1,21 долара тази сутрин, за първи път от средата на август, подкрепен от надеждите, че централната банка на САЩ може скоро да забави темпото на повишаване на лихвените проценти.

Паундът вече си възвърна близо 20 цента, откакто достигна рекордно ниско ниво през септември след хаоса, причинен от вече изоставения мини-бюджет.

Днес новината, че “голямото мнозинство” от Федерален резерв Длъжностните лица искат скоро да забавят повишаването на лихвите.

Силният паунд може да помогне за успокояване на инфлационната криза в Обединеното кралство, тъй като ще направи вносните стоки като гориво и енергия по-евтини – въпреки че паундът все още е надолу с 10% спрямо долара тази година.

лири спрямо щатския долар през изминалата година
лири спрямо щатския долар през изминалата година Снимка: Refinitiv

Протоколът от срещата на Фед през ноември, където той повиши референтния лихвен процент със 75 базисни пункта за четвърти пореден път, предполага, че много служители може да настояват за по-малко увеличение от 0,5 процентни пункта през декември.

Фед вече повиши целевата си лихва до 3,75%-4%, спрямо 0%-0,25% в началото на годината, докато се опитва да овладее растящата инфлация. Инфлацията на потребителските цени се забави и се очаква да продължи да намалява.

Така че с отслабването на световната икономика служителите се чудят дали могат да бъдат по-малко агресивни сега.

Както се казва в протокола:

По-бавното темпо при тези обстоятелства би трябвало по-добре да позволи на Комитета да оцени напредъка към целите си за максимална заетост и ценова стабилност.

Държавните облигации също се засилиха през последните седмици, тъй като агресивните съкращения на разходите и увеличенията на данъците, очертани от канцлера Джеръми Хънт, успокоиха пазарите.

Sterling and gilts build head of steam – pound hits highest since August vs $ and 3-week high vs euro; 10 and 30-year gilt yields slide to lowest since early Sept pic.twitter.com/1WLXbx1WiB

— Mike Dolan (@reutersMikeD) November 23, 2022

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Стерлингът и златото се повишават до най-високите си нива от август спрямо долара и триседмичен връх спрямо еврото; Доходността на златните облигации за 10 и 30 години спада до най-ниските си нива от началото на септември pic.twitter.com/1WLXbx1WiB

– Майк Долан (@reutersMikeD) 23 ноември 2022 г

The Банка на Англия Очаква се да повиши лихвите си с още 50 базисни пункта и през декември, от 3% на 3,5%.

И бум на хора напускане на британската работна сила Лошото здраве или ранното пенсиониране може да принуди Bank of England да повиши лихвените проценти.

Главният икономист Хю Бел Той предупреди снощи, че напускането на повече от половин милион работници от пазара на труда след пандемията на Covid заплашва да засили инфлационния натиск, дълго след като шокът от покачващите се цени на енергията вероятно ще отмине.

Но с навлизането на Обединеното кралство в рецесия може да е трудно за паунда да се повиши много повече.

Мариус Хаджикириакос, Старши инвестиционен анализатор XMказва:

Последните бизнес проучвания сочат, че икономиката на Обединеното кралство вече е в рецесия и е на път да се свие с 0,4% през това тримесечие, което вероятно ще се задълбочи още повече, като се има предвид резкият спад на прогнозните индикатори като нови поръчки.

Тъй като икономиката е в сътресения, докато правителството затяга колана си, е трудно да бъдем оптимисти за паунда, особено като се има предвид тясната му връзка с глобалните рискови настроения.

Британската централна банка може да промени паунда по-късно, тъй като се провежда конференцията на наблюдателите на Bank of England. Заместник областен управител Дейв Рамсдънглавен икономист ура зърно и външен MPC maker Катрин човек Всичко е говорене.

Също така получаваме най-новите проверки на здравето на фабриките в Обединеното кралство, бизнес климата в Германия, както и резултати от нашите серии „Направи си сам“ Kingfisher.

Resilient sales trends continue at Kingfisher with total sales +1.7% in constant currency and LFL +0.2% https://t.co/RMnLkdgxHB #homeimprovement #homeandgarden #diy #trade #retail #retailnews #q3results #Kingfisher pic.twitter.com/kncfhtc3eJ

— Insight DIY (@InsightDIY) November 24, 2022

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график на работа

  • 9 сутринта GMT: Германският индекс на Ifo за бизнес климата за ноември

  • 9.30 ч. GMT: Последни седмични данни за икономическата активност и социалните промени в Обединеното кралство

  • 9.45 ч. GMT: Заместник-управителят на BoE Дейв Рамсдън говори на конференцията на наблюдателите на BoE

  • 11:00 GMT: Индустриални тенденции на CBI за ноември

  • 12.30 ч. GMT: Сметки от заседанията на ЕЦБ за паричната политика